The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 20 JANUARY 2026
Week 1 (Monday 26 January to Sunday 01 February)
Low pressure will dominate our weather pattern in week 1 with higher than average rainfall across most of the country except for the far north-west where temperatures will be slightly below. Temperatures are expected to below average aswell.
Week 2 (Monday 02 February to Sunday 08 February)
A signal for low pressure remains for week 2. Temperatures are also expected to remain below average for this time of year. There is a signal for precipitation amounts to be below average for most of the country, with wetter conditions expected in parts of the south and east.
Week 3 (Monday 09 February to Sunday 15 February)
Uncertainty increases in the forecast for week 3. Low pressure looks to dominate with temperatures remaining below average across the country. Similar to week 2, precipitation anomalies are expected to be below average for this time of year with the exception of the south and south-east where there is a signal for higher than average precipitation amounts.
Week 4 (Monday 16 February to Sunday 22 February)
In week 4, confidence in the forecast is low. Current indications signal that low pressure will continue to dominate. Temperatures are likely to be average for the time of year with no indication of an anomalous pattern. Weather conditions will likely be unsettled with higher than average rainfall for most of the country. Parts of the west and north-west will be average or slightly below for rainfall.
Seasonal Outlook for January February March 2026 (JFM):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JFM period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the potential for wetter than average conditions overall.
Mean temperatures during JFM are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal, with the signal increasing through the period. However, colder than average periods, where all winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times throughout JFM, especially early on in the period.
There is a signal for above average rainfall overall, especially in the north and west of Ireland. This signal increases through JFM with March indicating the highest likelihood of above average rainfall out of the three months. Generally, there is potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months of JFM.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during JFM. SSTs are trending 0.2 to 0.5 degrees higher than normal off the west and north coasts, with a trend of 0.5 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal off the south and east coasts.