The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 16 JANUARY 2026
Week 1 (Monday 19 January to Sunday 25 January)
An unsettled pattern overall with low pressure systems tracking nearby. Rainfall amounts are expected to be above average for much of the country though parts of the far north may fare better. Temperatures will likely be around average overall. Wet and windy conditions are possible throughout with some heavy showers at times too with mostly unstable air aloft.
Week 2 (Monday 26 January to Sunday 01 February)
More settled overall compared to Week 1. A cool easterly airflow is likely to dominate bringing below average temperatures across the country. Rain and showers will likely lead to above average precipitation amounts for south and eastern counties, with more average accumulations further inland and below average amounts in the west and northwest.
Week 3 (Monday 02 February to Sunday 08 February)
A return to more unsettled conditions is indicated with low pressure systems making more of an influence. Above average precipitation amounts and slightly below average temperatures are expected. Wet and windy weather is possible at times.
Week 4 (Monday 09 February to Sunday 15 February)
Generally, more stable overall with neither high pressure or low pressure looking set to dominate. Temperatures will likely be around or slightly above normal. Precipitation amounts will be less than average.
Seasonal Outlook for January February March 2026 (JFM):
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JFM period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the potential for wetter than average conditions overall.
Mean temperatures during JFM are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures during the period are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above normal, with the signal increasing through the period. However, colder than average periods, where all winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times throughout JFM, especially early on in the period.
There is a signal for above average rainfall overall, especially in the north and west of Ireland. This signal increases through JFM with March indicating the highest likelihood of above average rainfall out of the three months. Generally, there is potential for wetter and drier spells within the three months of JFM.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue slightly above average during JFM. SSTs are trending 0.2 to 0.5 degrees higher than normal off the west and north coasts, with a trend of 0.5 to 1.0 degrees higher than normal off the south and east coasts.