The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 31 OCTOBER 2025
Week 1 (Monday 03 November to Sunday 09 November)
Week 1 is indicating a strong signal for low pressure to the northwest dominating conditions. This low pressure system will bring remnants of Ex-Hurricane Melissa and so warm, moist air will bring milder but wetter conditions over Ireland this week. This will bring predominantly unsettled conditions with higher than average rainfall signalled across the country. Mean air temperatures in week 1 will be mild with temperatures signalled to be above normal for the time of year.
Week 2 (Monday 10 November to Sunday 16 November)
While confidence in week 2 is lower, there is a slight signal for unsettled conditions to continue. While there is no signal for higher or lower pressure to dominate conditions, there is a signal for wetter than average conditions to continue across much of the country. Mean air temperatures in week 2 look to return closer to normal for the time of year.
Week 3 (Monday 17 November to Sunday 23 November)
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3. There is a slight signal for low pressure in the Atlantic to influence conditions this week. The precipitation anomaly is signalling average rainfall for most of the country but wetter than average conditions towards eastern and southwestern coasts in week 3. Meanwhile, mean air temperatures are continuing to signal average temperatures for the time of year.
Week 4 (Monday 24 November to Sunday 30 November)
In week 4, the forecast confidence is low. There is no signal for either high or low pressure to dominate our weather this week. Rainfall amounts look to return closer to average for the time of year, while mean air temperatures are signalling warmer than average temperatures across the country this week.
Seasonal Outlook for November, December and January 2025-26 (NDJ)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with potential for both wetter and drier than average spells within the three months.
Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above average generally. However, colder than average periods, where winter hazards are possible, could still occur at times.
The rainfall forecast is less certain. Generally, there is potential for both wetter and drier than normal conditions through NDJ.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to be above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to normal during December and January.