The meteorological information provided below (see “Overview”) is still valid and Storm Ashley has been confirmed as a rapid deepening or explosive cyclogenesis system. It is worth emphasising the complex scenario Storm Ashley will bring to coastal areas of the country, especially as it coincides with to some of the highest tides of the year.
Storm Ashley will also bring spells of heavy rain on Sunday, which is likely to lead to localised flooding in urban areas and small river catchments, as this rain is falling on already saturated and waterlogged ground.
In view of all this, Met Éireann has updated the weather warnings in place for Sunday and added a new yellow rainfall warning (see latest warnings here). Therefore, it is important to re-emphasize the main impacts expected:
Coastal flooding: Storm Surges are expected to reach between 0.5m to 1m on Sunday combined with onshore waves and exceptionally high spring tides. Limerick, Clare, Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim and Donegal coastlines will be particularly at risk for coastal flooding including wave overtopping in low-lying and exposed areas across all day Sunday.
Large coastal waves: Due to the strong winds, between 1m to 3m waves are forecast in the western bays on Sunday, with offshore waves reaching up to 10 m. This will add to the likelihood of coastal flooding.
Dangerous conditions at sea
Localised flooding due to heavy rainfall falling on already saturated and waterlogged ground
Flying debris, loose objects displaced
Fallen trees
Very difficult travelling conditions
Damage to power lines, power outages
Damage to already weakened structures
Please remember to “Stay Back, Stay High, Stay Dry” at all times during this event and have a look at the below section “How to Stay Safe in Extreme Weather” for detailed public authorities’ advice.
The following information is valid on Friday 18th October 2024 and until further update
OVERVIEW
Storm Ashley has been named by Met Éireann, becoming the first storm of the 2024/2025 season.
Storm Ashley is a low-pressure system currently developing in the western North Atlantic, on the southern side of the Jet Stream. It is expected to travel quickly eastwards over the Atlantic this weekend, crossing to the northern side of the Jet Stream, becoming positioned in the left exit region (a developmental area of the Jet) which will cause it to undergo rapid deepening later on Saturday.
Fig 1- ECMWF 00z Run Friday 18th Oct showing atmospheric pressure (black lines) overlayed with the Jet Stream (purple colour), showing how the jet stream will deepen Ashley over the weekend into a storm depression and steer it to the northwest of Ireland and the UK (see Sunday slide below)
The system will become a storm depression as it swings up to the west and northwest of Ireland on Saturday night and Sunday.
Fig 2– ECMWF 00z Run Friday 18th Oct showing atmospheric pressure (black lines) overlaid with the Jet Stream (purple colour), showing Storm Ashley in on the northern part of the jet stream, impacting Ireland and the UK on Sunday.
Met Éireann’s meteorologist Liz Walsh, says:
“Storm Ashley will bring strong southerly winds overnight on Saturday night and early Sunday with a second wave of even stronger south-westerly winds, accompanied by damaging gusts across the country, from mid-morning on Sunday, right though the afternoon and into the evening in some parts.”
She continues:
“We are currently in a period of exceptionally high spring tides, and this, tied in with the strong winds and high waves, will substantially increase the risk of coastal flooding, especially along Atlantic coasts”.
At this time, Met Éireann has issued an OrangeWind Warning for some western counties and a Yellow Wind Warning for Ireland, for Sunday, but the warnings are likely to be updated as more information from our high-resolution models comes in and is analysed by our meteorologists(latest warnings here).
KEY INFORMATION – SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
The potential impacts of Storm Ashley are:
Coastal flooding: Storm Surges are expected to reach between 0.5 metre to 1 metre on Sunday evening combined with onshore waves and high tides Clare, Galway and Mayo Coastlines will be particularly at risk for coastal flooding including wave overtopping in low-lying and exposed areas.
Large coastal waves: Due to the strong winds between 1m to 3m are forecast in the western bays on Sunday, with offshore waves reach up to 10m. This will add to the like hood of coastal flooding.
Dangerous conditions at sea
Flying debris, loose objects displaced
Fallen trees
Very difficult travelling conditions
Damage to power lines, power outages
Damage to already weakened structures
NOTE THAT:
The warnings are likely to be updated. Please keep in touch with Met Éireann’s social media channels, www.met.ie and the Met Éireann app to stay up to date with the forecast and any warnings’ updates.
The timing and location of extreme weather occurrences can significantly affect their impact. It’s important to note that in any individual weather event, not every location within a warning area may experience the same degree of weather or impacts.
When severe weather is expected, weather and impacts at lower levels are also likely to be experienced. The type and level of impacts can be strongly affected by previous weather conditions. When issuing a warning, Met Éireann takes into consideration the forecasted conditions and thresholds, as well as previous weather conditions that may increase the level of impact expected for particular areas.
HOW TO STAY SAFE IN EXTREME WEATHER
Stay up-to date with the forecast and the warnings for your county on met.ie, the Met Éireann app or Met Éireann socials (@meteireann).
Check in with your local authority and emergency management stakeholders (Irish Coast Guards, Gardaí, etc) via their websites and social channels to see how your area will be/is affected.
Ensure your mobile is phone is fully charged to enable communication in advance of the event and keep local emergency numbers in your phone.
Keep a small amount of food, medical and water supplies in case it’s dangerous to step out of the home.
Advance planning for flooding: You can consult the OPW flood maps, which show areas that may be at risk of flooding based on historical data (see www.floodinfo.ie).
Stay away from coastal areas during the period. Remember the advice from the Irish Coast Guard: “Stay Back, Stay High, Stay Dry”.
Don’t try to walk, cycle or drive through flooded areas, the depth of the water can be deceiving.
Remember: As little as 150mm of fast-flowing water can knock you off your feet and 300mm of fast-flowing water can move most cars off the road.
While on the road in strong winds, beware of fallen trees or other debris and high sided vehicles, particularly when overtaking. If you are driving a high sided vehicle, try to anticipate exposed sections of roadway where winds will be stronger.
ESB Networks is highlighting the dangers posed by fallen live wires and advises the public and the emergency services to stay away from fallen cables and to report such cases immediately. ESB Emergency Services can be contacted at 1800 372 999.
You can monitor www.powercheck.ie in regards to power restoration times
Storms are named when they could cause ‘medium’ or ‘high’ impacts in one of the three partner countries. This enables consistent, authoritative messaging to the public and other stakeholders to help them to prepare for and stay safe during potentially severe weather events.
Since 2015, Met Éireann and the UK Met Office have been working together on the naming programme and were joined by the Netherlands’ KNMI in 2019, to form the ‘western group’ of European weather services.
When a storm is forecast, the national weather service that expects the biggest impact from the severe weather to hit its region, or is likely to be first affected by it, names the storm. Storm naming happens in conjunction with orange/red weather warnings, which could be for wind, rain or snow, or a combination of these conditions. Those warnings are, in turn, issued based on a combination of numerical thresholds and the potential impacts foreseen.
HOW ARE STORM NAMES CHOSEN?
Met Éireann, the UK Met Office and KNMI publish a new list of storm names for each Storm Season, which commences on 1st September.
This 2024/25 season, each of the three meteorological services contributed seven names to the season’s list. Met Éireann’s contributions to this year’s list were taken from more than 500 suggestions by primary school children participating in ESB Science Blast last February.
The full 2024/25 list is Ashley, Bert, Conall, Darragh, Éowyn, Floris, Gerben, Hugo, Izzy, James, Kayleigh, Lewis, Mavis, Naoise, Otje, Poppy, Rafi, Sayuri, Tilly, Vivienne, Wren, with Met Éireann contributing the names for C, D, H, I, N, P and V (names chosen by Met Éireann in bold).
(Note – letters Q, U, X, Y, Z are not included, in line with the US National Hurricane Centre naming convention.)
PAST STORM SEASONS OVERVIEW
Last season (2023/24) there were fourteen (14) named storms affecting the area, twelve (12) of which were named by the Western Europe Group, formed by UK Met Office, KNMI and Met Éireann, and the other two (2) storms (Elisa and Geraldine) by the Southwestern Europe Group, made up of France, Portugal and Spain.
2023/24 was the season with the highest number of storms named in a season by the Western Europe Group list (12 storms)
2023/24 is the first season since the initiative began in 2015 in which an ‘L’ storm was named from the list of the Western Europe Group – Storm Lilian in August 2024.
The lowest number of named storms since the initiative began was the four (4) named in 2022/23.
Prior to the 2023/24 season, the highest number of named storms occurred in the 2015/16 and 2017/18 seasons, with eleven (11) named storms in each.
Since 2015/16, there has been an average of eight (8) named storms in each season
Season 2015/2016 remains the season with the greatest number of storms reaching Storm Force 10, as nine (9) of the eleven (11) named storms observed Storm Force 10 sustained wind speeds at Atlantic coastal stations.
During the past season 2023/24, there were three (3) named storms with Storm Force 10 sustained wind speeds or higher:
Storm Force 10 sustained (10-minute mean) wind speeds were observed during named Storm Fergus (91 km/h) and Storm Jocelyn (96 km/h), at Mace Head (coastal), Co Galway on Sunday 10th December 2023 and Tuesday 23rd January 2024 respectively.
Violent Storm Force 11 sustained wind speeds were observed at Mace Head (coastal), Co Galway during Storm Isha on Sunday 21st January 2024. Before that, Violent Storm Force winds had been last observed during Storm Eunice on Friday 18th February 2022.
No Hurricane strength sustained/mean winds at any Met Éireann wind station have been observed since the Storm Naming initiative began. Storm Ellen in August 2020 came very close to observing winds of this strength, with 111 km/h at Roches Point, Co Cork. The last hurricane force winds affecting Ireland were observed during Storm Darwin on Wednesday 12th February 2014. Hurricane force winds have been observed at coastal western stations, mainly in January (half the time), twice in December and once in February, March and September.
It is not uncommon to have storms named in the month of October. Since the naming initiative started, 5 out of 9 seasons have had October storms, including Ophelia on 16th October 2017 and Babet last year. Prior to storm Ashley, a total of 7 storms have impacted Ireland in October, since 2015.
The following information is valid on Thursday, 17th October 2024 and until further update.
Summary – A weather advisory has been issued for Ireland
This Friday, a brief period of heavy rain and strong winds across the country is expected.
We are monitoring another low-pressure system which could undergo rapid deepening on Saturday with the potential for strong winds and potentially a named storm; however, uncertainty still exists about this event.
Additionally, we are currently in one of the highest Spring tides of the year and this, tied in with any strong winds and high waves will increase the risk of coastal flooding.
Weather warnings for Saturday/Sunday, related to the Advisory issued for Ireland today,will be issued starting tomorrow, Friday 18thOctober, when Met Éireann’s high–resolution model provides an updated situation about the evolution of the low pressure system, and our meteorologists analyse it.
Meteorological situation
The Jet Stream is expected to become very active across the Atlantic later this week and into this weekend which allowing it to pick up low-pressure systems and deepen them as they cross the Atlantic. The first low pressure system of interest (Figure 1 forecast time 12Z on Friday) is currently off the coast of Newfoundland, (Canada) as of Wednesday 16th October, and this system will undergo a period of deepening as it tracks towards Iceland by Friday night. Even though the low itself won’t impact us directly, an associated active frontal system will move eastwards over Ireland on Friday. All areas are likely to see a brief period of heavy rain and strong winds during the day on Friday.
We are currently in one of the highest Spring tides of the year and unusually high tides mean coastal flooding is possible. These exceptionally high Spring tides are due to the current proximity of the moon to the earth leading to an increased gravitational pull. Given the high astronomical tides any strong winds and high waves will increase the risk of coastal flooding, especially along Atlantic coasts.
Fig 1- Wind and Temperature forecasts at 300 hPa and the Geopotential at 500 hPa
However, our meteorologists’ gaze is also turning towards a different area of low pressure (see Figure 2 below, forecast time 00Z on Sunday), which will be developing in the western North Atlantic, about 500 nautical miles southwest of Nova Scotia. This low-pressure system is expected to travel quickly eastwards over the Atlantic this weekend. Current guidance suggests that this low will be on the southern side of the Jet Stream on Friday and will then cross over to the northern left exit region of the Jet Stream on Saturday. This system is then expected to undergo a period of rapid deepening, creating a storm depression as it swings up to the northwest of Ireland around Saturday night or Sunday morning.
Fig 2: Wind and Temperature forecasts at 300 hPa and the Geopotential at 500 hPa
“There is still a lot of uncertainty in the details at this time, but the potential is there for strong winds and therefore a named storm on Saturday night into Sunday” said Liz Walsh, Met Éireann Meteorologist.
Updated information can be expected as the situation evolves and we analyse model data. Keep up to date with the forecast through your usual channels and for live updates, check met.ie or the Met Éireann app.
UPDATE ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FORECAST FOR the weekend of 5th-6th OCTOBER
The following information is valid at 15:30, Friday 4th October 2024 until further updates.
The meteorological situation described yesterday (below) is still valid, with a band of rain expected to trail over the country from Friday night (4th October) through to Saturday night (5th October), with the heaviest and most persistent rain forecast over the southwest and west of the country, particularly over counties Kerry and Cork.
The low pressure system will be slow moving and updates from our models this morning have led to a revision of the warnings issued yesterday. The orange rainfall warnings for Kerry and Cork have been extended for an additional hour to midnight on Saturday (valid from 00:00 Saturday 5th to 00:00 Sunday 6th). Waterford has also been elevated to an orange rainfall warning, valid from 12:00 Saturday to 00:00 Sunday. This is due to a combination of factors: heavy rainfall in mountainous regions, soil conditions which have not recovered from last weekend’s rainfall and the heaviest of the rain coinciding with high tide. All this coupled with fresh to strong onshore winds which will exacerbate river levels.
Figure 1 – Rainfall warnings issued by Met Éireann for Saturday 5th October (valid at time of writing on Friday 4th October)
Accumulations of 30-50 mm over 24h are likely in the counties under yellow warning, however rainfall amounts may be higher on windward slopes of the mountains in west Galway and west Mayo. Parts of Cork, Kerry and Waterford will see totals of 50-70 mm over a 24h period, but similarly, higher accumulations can be expected in mountainous regions of west Kerry and west Cork.
Figure 2 –24 Hour Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Probability Maps, available to the public here ( 24 Hour Precipitation – Met Éireann – The Irish Meteorological Service).The image shows the probability of rainfall accumulations over certain thresholds for this Saturday 5th October to Sunday 6th October.
In view of this, updates topotential impacts expected are:
River flooding: Soils are saturated in some places and river levels are currently low but will respond notably to the amount of rain, with out of bank flooding expected in places. Smaller rivers, especially those prone to flash flooding in urban and upland areas, may rise quickly on Saturday and into Sunday. Rivers in the south and west, particularly in the mountainous areas of Kerry, West Cork and Limerick, as well as Galway and Mayo could be affected. Given the volume of rainfall forecast throughout the weekend, levels will potentially rise in the headwaters of larger rivers including the Lee, Munster Blackwater and Bandon. It’s important to note that rivers are likely to continue to respond and rise over the weekend and into next week with further rain expected.
Coastal flooding: We are in a period of Spring tides, although not a particularly high Spring tide. Onshore winds Saturday evening on the south coast may coincide with high tide (approx. 18:00-20:00), exacerbating rising river levels in estuarine areas, resulting in flooding. Strong onshore winds may lead to wave overtopping in exposed coastal areas.
Dangerous travelling conditions due to low visibility, surface water and potentially flooding.
Travel disruptions.
Please keep in touch with Met Éireann’s social media channels, www.met.ie and the Met Éireann app to stay up to date with the forecast and any updates to the warnings.
The timing and location of weather can significantly affect its impact. It’s important to note that in any individual weather event, not every location within a warning area may experience the same degree of weather or impacts.
When severe weather is expected, weather and impacts at lower levels are also likely to be experienced. The type and degree of impacts can be strongly affected by previous weather conditions. Met Éireann takes into consideration the forecasted conditions and thresholds, as well as previous weather conditions, that may increase the level of impact expected for particular areas when issuing a warning.
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO PRIOR TO AND DURING EXTREME WEATHER? PUBLIC SAFETY INFORMATION AND MESSAGES FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STAKEHOLDERS
Stay up-to date with the forecast and the warnings for your county on met.ie, the Met Éireann app or Met Éireann socials (@meteireann).
Check in with your local authority and emergency management stakeholders (Irish Coast Guards, Gardaí, etc) through their website and social channels to see how your area will be/is affected.
Ensure your mobile is phone is fully charged to enable communication in advance of the event and keep local emergency numbers in your phone.
Keep a small amount of food, extra medical and water supplies in case it’s dangerous to step out of the home.
Advance planning for flooding: You can consult the OPW flood maps, which show areas that may be at risk of flooding, based on historical data (see www.floodinfo.ie).
Stay away from coastal areas during the period. Remember the advice from the Irish Coast Guard: “Stay Back, Stay High, Stay Dry”.
Don’t try to walk, cycle or drive through flooded areas, the depth of the water can be deceiving.
Remember: As little as 150mm of fast-flowing water can knock you off your feet and 300mm of fast-flowing water can move most cars off the road.
ESB Networks is highlighting the dangers posed by fallen live wires and advises the public and the emergency services to stay away from fallen cables and to report such cases immediately. ESB Emergency Services can be contacted at 1800 372 999.
You can monitor powercheck.ie in regard to power restoration times.
The following information is valid at 18:00, Thursday 3rd October 2024 until further updates.
Through Friday night (4th October) and into Saturday (5th October) a broad area of low pressure will move over Ireland introducing a milder and moist airmass. The progression of this system across Ireland will be stalled due to high pressure over central Europe. A band of rain associated with this system is expected to trail over the country through Saturday 5th October, with the heaviest and most persistent rain forecast over the southwestern and west of the country, particularly over counties Kerry and Cork.
Figure 1 – Rainfall forecast for Friday (4th October) to Sunday (6th October)
Deputy Head of Forecasting Liz Coleman said: “Friday will be a cloudy and damp day with rain and drizzle in many areas, but the impactful rain will start from Friday night onwards and the rain will be heavy and persistent in many areas for much of Saturday.
Through Saturday, high pressure in the mid-Atlantic, together with an area of low-pressure further north, will work in tandem to drag warm tropical air up over the country. As we know, the warmer the air, the higher its ability to hold moisture, so this event has the potential to be quite impactful.”
Figure 2 – Airmass Temperature and Surface Pressure chart, showing area of low-pressure (L) to the west of Ireland, working in tandem with an area of high-pressure (H) in the mid-Atlantic, which has its origin over warm seas in the tropics (dark orange and red airmass)
Liz Coleman continues: “While much of the west and southwest are forecast to receive over 30mm of rain in a 24h period, our models are currently predicting in excess of 50mm of rain over parts of southwest Kerry and west Cork, with higher accumulations possible in mountainous areas.”
Figure 3 –24 Hour Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Probability Maps, available to the public here ( 24 Hour Precipitation – Met Éireann – The Irish Meteorological Service).The image shows the probability of rainfall accumulations over certain thresholds for this Friday 4th October and Saturday 5th October.
At the time of writing, Met Éireann has issued an ORANGE rainfall warning for counties Cork and Kerry (Valid: 00:00 to 23:00 Saturday 05/10/2024) and a YELLOW rainfall warning for counties Clare, Limerick, Waterford, Galway and Mayo (Valid: 00:00 Saturday 05/10/2024 to 00:00 Sunday 06/10/2024).
In view of the situation, potential impacts expected are:
River flooding: Although river levels are generally low, soils are currently nearing saturation. Therefore, given the widespread and prolonged nature of the rain, significant river level increases are expected, with small and upland catchments at the greatest risk of flooding.
Coastal flooding: Fresh to strong southeasterly onshore winds and waves, coinciding with high tide along southern coasts on Saturday evening, could result in wave overtopping. Spring tides may prevent rivers from discharging into the sea at time of high tide, increasing the risk of flooding on coastal areas.
Dangerous travelling conditions due to low visibility, surface water and potentially flooding.
Travel disruptions.
The warnings are likely to be updated. Please keep in touch with Met Éireann’s social media channels, www.met.ie and the Met Éireann app to stay up to date with the forecast and any warnings’ updates.
The timing and location of weather can significantly affect its impact. It’s important to note that in any individual weather event, not every location within a warning area may experience the same degree of weather or impacts.
When severe weather is expected, weather and impacts at lower levels are also likely to be experienced. The type and degree of impacts can be strongly affected by previous weather conditions. Met Éireann takes into consideration the forecasted conditions and thresholds, as well as previous weather conditions, that may increase the level of impact expected for particular areas when issuing a warning.
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO PRIOR TO AND DURING EXTREME WEATHER? PUBLIC SAFETY INFORMATION AND MESSAGES FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STAKEHOLDERS
Stay up-to date with the forecast and the warnings for your county on met.ie, the Met Éireann app or Met Éireann socials (@meteireann).
Check in with your local authority and emergency management stakeholders (Irish Coast Guards, Gardaí, etc) through their website and social channels to see how your area will be/is affected.
Ensure your mobile is phone is fully charged to enable communication in advance of the event and keep local emergency numbers in your phone.
Keep a small amount of food, extra medical and water supplies in case it’s dangerous to step out of the home.
Advance planning for flooding: You can consult the OPW flood maps, which show areas that may be at risk of flooding, based on historical data (see www.floodinfo.ie).
Stay away from coastal areas during the period. Remember the advice from the Irish Coast Guard: “Stay Back, Stay High, Stay Dry”.
ESB Networks is highlighting the dangers posed by fallen live wires and advises the public and the emergency services to stay away from fallen cables and to report such cases immediately. ESB Emergency Services can be contacted at 1800 372 999.
You can monitor powercheck.ie in regard to power restoration times.
Storm Lilian has been named by the UK Met Office – what impacts can we expect in Ireland?
Below valid at 12pm on Thursday 22nd August 2024.
The low-pressure system which will deepen and become Storm Lilian over the next 24 hours can be seen in the mid-Atlantic on the 00 UTC surface analysis chart with its associated fronts.
Fig 1: Surface analysis chart 00UTC
Wind Impacts
While the main impacts associated with Storm Lilian will be felt across the UK in the early hours of tomorrow morning, Met Éireann have issued yellow level wind and rain warnings.
Forecaster Brandon Creagh said: “The centre of the low pressure system is expected to track across the middle of country tonight, bringing unseasonably strong and gusty south to southwest winds which will veer west to northwest as the system tracks eastwards.
The strongest of the winds will occur overnight but with the trees still in full leaf, people need to be careful of debris or branches on the roads tomorrow morning.”
Fig 2: Model output wind and gusts.
Gale warnings are also in effect in eastern and southern sea areas.
Ireland is currently in a period of very high tides. There is a High Tide Advisory in effect for all coasts of Ireland, expiring at 12:00 noon tomorrow, Friday, leading to the continued risk of coastal flooding and wave overtopping on coasts affected by onshore winds.
Rainfall Impacts
This system will also bring heavy rainfall over a short time period with current model output showing the likelihood of exceeding 20mm accumulations over a 6 hour period overnight.
Fig 3: Model output cloud and rainfall.
Status yellow rainfall warnings are in effect for a number of counties. Potential impacts from this heavy rainfall include:
Localised flooding
Difficult travelling conditions
Storm Lilian is the first “L” named storm since storm naming commenced in 2015.
Why was the name “Lilian” chosen?
Storm Lilian is named after Lilian Bland, who was an Anglo-Irish journalist and pioneer aviator. She was the first woman in Ireland to build and fly an aircraft, and quite possibly the world’s first woman to build her own airplane, the Bland Mayfly.
A low-pressure system will steer weather fronts over the country on Sunday and Monday.
This system will bring warm and very moist air, and this has the potential to produce heavy and intense spells of rain, which will fall in a relatively short time.
Expected impacts from the heavy rain will be surface and river flooding as well as disruption to travel.
There are yellow rainfall warnings in place on Sunday for Clare, Donegal and Connacht.
The warnings start at midday and run through to midday on Bank Holiday Monday.
The rain has the potential to cause flooding, damage to temporary structures as well as cause difficult driving conditions.
Early tonight, even heavier rain will move in over the country. Orange rainfall warnings have been issued for Galway, Mayo and Donegal.
The warnings will start at midnight on Sunday and will end at 10:00 on Bank Holiday Monday morning.
As this is a Bank Holiday weekend, there will be many people on holiday, and it is important that they take note of the rainfall warnings and take the appropriate steps to protect themselves.
As well as the unseasonably wet conditions there will be strong winds especially along coasts and over exposed ground so people should take care near the coasts.
The impacts from the rain will continue after the weather warnings cease as there is likely to be surface flooding, as well as runoff from fields and surfaced areas and smaller river catchments impacted by the heavy rain may get out of bank.
Updated on Saturday 03rd August 2024
After a rather pleasant end to July, a broad area of low pressure in the north Atlantic will introduce more unsettled conditions for the August bank holiday weekend. This low pressure will steer frontal systems across Ireland, with spells of heavy rain expected on Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday, coupled with fresh to strong and gusty southerly winds along Atlantic coasts.
Met Éireann forecaster Aoife Kealy said “It’ll feel fresher on Saturday but despite that, it will be the best day of the weekend. Though the temperatures will drop back to the mid to high teens, there’ll be plenty of dry spells and some sunshine between the scattered showers.”
The drier and brighter weather will be short-lived, as the next low pressure system in the north Atlantic drives weather fronts across Ireland on Sunday and Monday.
Aoife explained “This low pressure system will drag a warm, moist airmass with it from the mid-Atlantic. That warm, moisture-laden air will act like fuel for this system, meaning the rain that it brings will be heavy.”
Through Sunday afternoon and much of Monday, that heavy rain will move eastwards across the country. The rain will be heaviest in the west and southwest with flooding possible. Becoming blustery also, with fresh and gusty southerly winds developing, strong on western and southern coasts.
It will also be very mild on Sunday night due to the warm airmass that the low pressure system will introduce. Temperatures will not fall below 14 to 17 degrees, so it will be an uncomfortable night for sleeping.
Aoife continued “With the bank holiday weekend, more people will be out and about and they may not expect the unseasonably wet weather and strong winds. Sunday will not start off too bad but don’t let that lull you into a false sense of security. The rain will get progressively heavier through the afternoon and evening with those southerly winds picking up, so make sure to check the forecast and any warnings for your area before heading out.”
Yellow warnings have been issued for heavy rainfall for counties Clare, Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim and Donegal from Sunday afternoon through to Monday afternoon.
Potential impacts:
Localised flooding
Damage to temporary structures
Difficult travel conditions
Poor visibility
Stay in contact with the forecast over the coming days for the most up to date information on met.ie and on the Met Éireann app, particularly if planning outdoor activities.
Looking ahead to next week, current indications suggest that while it will be largely unsettled with showers and rain at times, no further impactful weather is expected.
Met Éireann have named Storm Kathleen (the 11th storm of the 2023/2024 season).
Below valid at 10am on Friday 5th April 2024.
Storm Kathleen is a significant low-pressure system tracking off the west coast which will bring strong southerly winds and damaging gusts across the country on Saturday.
Met Éireann have issued a nationwide yellow wind warning for Saturday with orange level wind warnings coming into effect for counties Cork, Kerry and Waterford at 7am, valid until 2pm, and counties Galway and Mayo at 9am, valid until 6pm. Storm Kathleen is a dynamic system so there may be updates to the warnings. Please keep in touch with Met Éireann’s social media channels, www.met.ie and the Met Éireann app to stay up to date with the forecasts.
Deputy Head of Forecasting, Liz Coleman said“It is the end of the Easter holidays so there will be a lot of people travelling and they may not be expecting such unseasonably strong and gusty winds. Please make sure to plan your journeys in advance by keeping in contact with the forecast. We are likely to see some trees down due to the saturated soils and strong winds. There will be dangerous conditions at sea too, coupled with wave overtopping and coastal flooding in some areas.”
The rapid deepening of Storm Kathleen is due the interaction of this low-pressure system with a strong southerly jet stream.
The potential impacts of Storm Kathleen are likely to be:
Very difficult travel conditions
Fallen trees
Some power outages
Coastal flooding
Wave overtopping
Harmonie model – wind/gust
Storm Kathleen will increase water levels on all coasts as we approach a period of spring tides. This will result in strong coastal winds, a rough sea state and significant waves. Coastal flooding and wave overtopping is likely, especially at times of high tide.
The rain associated with Storm Kathleen will fall on already saturated ground, therefore water will make its way quickly into the rivers. Cumulative rainfall totals could lead to elevated river levels in western and southwestern areas.
It will feel quite mild too for this time of year, as the southerly airflow bring warm air over the country.
Do we frequently get storms in April?
Two storms have been named in April since storm naming began in 2015/2016. Storm Hannah was named by Met Éireann on Fri 26th April 2019, which brought storm force winds to Mace Head. Storm Noa named by Météo France, brought storm force winds to Sherkin island on Wed 12th April 2023.
There was also a storm as late as 14th June 2018, Storm Hector, which brought storm force winds to Mace Head.
Why was the name “Kathleen” chosen?
Storm Kathleen is named after Kathleen “Kay” Antonelli/McNulty and Kathleen Lonsdale. This is one of the 7 names Met Éireann chose for the 2023-24 list. Met Éireann chose names of eminent Irish/Northern-Irish scientists to honour their important contributions to science and benefits for humankind.
Kathleen ‘Kay’ McNulty Mauchly Antonelli: one of the mothers of computer programming.
Kay was an Irish computer programmer, and one of the six original programmers on the ENIAC machine, which was one of the first general purpose electronic digital computers.
In 2017, DCU honoured Kay by naming their computer science building in her name.
The Irish-Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC) also honoured her in 2019 when they named their new supercomputer “Kay” following a public vote whereby Kathleen beat out other candidates including Francis Beaufort and Nicholas Callan.
Kathleen Lonsdale: Irish crystallographer who demonstrated the crystal structure of benzene.
She was the first to use Fourier spectral methods while solving the structure of hexachlorobenzene in 1931.
She was also one of the first two women inducted as a Fellow of the Royal Society in 1945 alongside Marjory Stephenson, a British biochemist.
Ireland will experience a respite from the recent wet and windy weather as high pressure builds from the Azores over the weekend and becomes established over Ireland into next week, bringing cold, clear and generally calm conditions with little precipitation.
Figure 1: High Pressure building over Ireland. Colour scale represents airmass temperatures.
Met Éireann meteorologist Liz Coleman explained “It’s going to feel much colder than it has recently, with daytime temperatures in the low single figures and nighttime temperatures falling below zero in most areas. Widespread frost is expected with some ice, although generally dry conditions will limit ice formation to mainly areas of standing water or run off. Nevertheless, do take care while out and about.
While it will be cold, it will be mainly dry with sunny spells as the high pressure will prevent any significant rainfall.
Liz said “There will be showers at times in the north and west over the weekend and in the east through next week but rainfall amounts will be low. So a lot of dry weather in the forecast”.
Figure 2: Rainfall and pressure forecast
Liz continued “The cold temperatures coupled with near calm conditions means fog will also be a feature of our weather, particularly over the weekend. Dense fog patches are likely on Saturday and Sunday night. With little wind to clear the fog, it may linger into the daytime in some areas leading to tricky travelling conditions. Our forecasters will be monitoring the situation and will issue warnings as required.
Make sure to check in on the forecast and warnings for your areas on met.ie
Current indications suggest that high pressure will be in control of our weather until next weekend when the models show a breakdown to more unsettled, but still cold weather. Although there is a lot of uncertainty that far ahead in the forecast.
The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Visit our Weather Warnings page.
For advice and information on staying save in severe weather, please consult www.winterready.ie
A slow moving low pressure system will dominate Ireland’s weather over the weekend, bringing strong and gusty winds through Saturday and into Sunday, which will be accompanied by heavy rain and thundery showers.
Figure 1: Low pressure tracking across the country this weekend
Met Éireann meteorologist Liz Coleman said “There is a lot of weather coming our way over the weekend. South-easterly winds will veer westerly and intensify on Friday night as a band of rain crosses the country. The rain will be heavy at times with localised flooding possible, leading to difficult travelling conditions. Gales along coasts coupled with spring tides may lead to wave overtopping on exposed coasts”.
Figure 2: Wind Forecast
Met Éireann have issued wind and rain warnings. Details can be found on the Weather Warnings page.
There will be some respite from the rain through the afternoon on Saturday as it clears into the Irish sea by the afternoon. However southwest to west winds will continue strong and gusty steering some heavy and possibly thundery showers over mainly the western of the country through Saturday.
Liz continued “By Sunday morning (New Years Eve) the winds will have veered northwesterly with counties Clare, Cork and Kerry experiencing the most intense winds with the ongoing potential for wave overtopping in coastal areas. A mix of sunny spells and scattered showers are expected countrywide for the rest of the day.
Figure 3: Rainfall and Cloud forecast
The showers and winds will ease somewhat for midnight New Years celebrations with a sunny start in many areas on New Years Day and isolated showers. Cloud will thicken from the southwest through the afternoon with a further spell of rain late on Monday.
Make sure to check in on the forecast and warnings for your areas when making plans for the weekend on met.ie
The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Visit our Weather Warnings page.
For advice and information on staying save in severe weather, please consult www.winterready.ie
An active jet-stream this weekend has been leading to the development and deepening of low-pressure systems out in the Atlantic steering stormy weather over Ireland.
Two storms have been named by Met Éireann, the 5th and 6th storms of the current storm-naming season, Storm Elin & Storm Fergus. Storm Elin was named overnight and is impacting Ireland today, with orange level wind warnings for Donegal, Dublin & Wicklow for a time. Storm Fergus was named this morning and will impact Ireland later tomorrow and early tomorrow night (Sunday 10th December), with orange level wind warnings for Clare, Galway & Mayo. Yellow level wind warnings have also been issued for both events for many counties along with a status yellow rainfall warning for today for Donegal. For more detail on warnings check met.ie/warnings.
Storm Elin, Saturday 9th December
Taking a look firstly at Storm Elin. On Friday night, Storm Elin developed through the engagement of the left exit of a jet streak with a surface elongated trough out to the west of Ireland. Elin then quickly tracked eastwards over the north of the country this morning, generating strong to gale force west to northwest winds overland. The storm centre will continue to move eastwards over Scotland this afternoon, but with strong to gale force and gusty west to northwest winds in its wake. Those winds will gradually ease early tonight.
Analysis chart showing the development are of Storm Elin below:
Chart showing the jet stream and pressure pattern below: Storm Elin developed in the area highlighted above where elongated trough interacts with the left exit of a jet streak.
Harmonie evolution of Storm Elin is shown below:
Storm Fergus, Sunday 10th December
A rapidly deepening wave depression, currently forming in the mid-Atlantic as it interacts with a left exit region of a jet streak, will continue to develop into Storm Fergus and approach from the southwest through today, tonight and tomorrow. It had an initial pressure of 996hpa and is expected to deepen to around 968hpa out in the Atlantic early tonight, so meeting the criteria for rapid cyclogenesis. It will fill a little then as it tracks towards Ireland and is expected to make landfall tomorrow evening along the west coast with a central pressure of approximately 980hpa. Met Éireann Meteorologist, Michelle Dillon, said: “Strong to gale force southwest winds veering westerly will be developing through Sunday afternoon, evening and early Sunday night as Storm Fergus tracks eastwards across the country, filling a little as it does. Storm surge will lead to high seas and along with the stormy conditions, there’s the possibility of coastal flooding along parts of the west coast, particularly at high tide.”
Analysis chart at 12Z on December 9th, showing the development of Storm Fergus still well out in the Atlantic.
Chart showing the jet stream and pressure pattern below: Storm Fergus is developing from a wave depression where it is interacting with the left exit of a jet streak.
Harmonie evolution of storm Fergus is shown below:
High or very high seas off the west coast tomorrow:
There is increasing confidence that the current cold spell will last until Tuesday night. A nationwide yellow low temperature/ice warning in place from Friday evening until Sunday afternoon as widespread frost and icy stretches develop. A nationwide yellow fog warning is in place for the same period as dense fog and some patches of freezing fog develop, exacerbating the already hazardous conditions. The warnings will be monitored and reviewed/extended if necessary so keep in touch with the forecast.
Meteorologist Aoife Kealy explained the situation; “There’ll be scattered showers for Friday and the weekend. Most of those will fall as rain but there will still be some hail, sleet and snow at times. Then, on Sunday night a low pressure system will track past the south coast. That could bring some rain and drizzle to eastern and southern coastal counties with some sleet possible too. That system doesn’t look like it will move up over the country so this will allow the cold conditions to persist.”
Daytime temperatures in the coming days will often range from 1 to 5 degrees, with night time temperatures often falling to 0 to -4 degrees or below. As a result, there will be widespread frost and icy stretches, combined with areas of dense fog and freezing fog.
Aoife added, “Because it’ll be so cold, the frost and ice will linger in places right through the day. Areas of fog and freezing fog will be slow to clear from places during the day too. That’ll all combine to make for hazardous travel conditions, poor visibility and slippery conditions underfoot.”
Monday and Tuesday will be cold but dry for many. However, there will be a few showers at times in the east and southeast and once again, these may turn to hail and sleet with a chance of snow on high ground.
Aoife continued, “At the moment it looks like this cold spell will stay with us through Monday and most of Tuesday. After that, current indications point towards a low pressure system spreading from the Atlantic later on Tuesday and on Wednesday, bringing widespread rain and milder conditions. However, there is a chance that as that rain meets the cold air over us, some of it may fall as sleet or snow. But that’ll be short-lived as the milder air will quickly follow.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area, please visit www.met.ie.
For advice on winter weather preparation, please visit www.winterready.ie.
Meteorological winter begins on Friday 1st of December. As that date approaches, a northerly airflow will become established over Ireland, introducing much colder conditions, with widespread frost and some ice developing each night. There will be occasional showers through the week too, which may turn wintry, but these showers will be quite light with minimal accumulations.
How cold will it be?
Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy explained, “An Arctic airmass is going to sink across us this week, bringing noticeably colder conditions than we’ve had lately. Daytime temperatures will struggle to get above the low single figures, especially from Wednesday onwards. Night time temperatures will be near freezing or below through the week too so that means there’ll be widespread frost and some ice. On top of that, light winds will allow fog to develop overnight, becoming dense in places. Any frost, ice and fog will be slow to clear in the mornings making travel difficult at times. So, extra care will be needed on the roads.”
Is it going to be wet or dry?
While it will be cold, the week will be largely dry with some spells of sunshine. High pressure will often be near Ireland through the period, bringing generally settled conditions and preventing any significant rainfall.
Aoife continued “There’s potential for patchy rain in the south on Wednesday night and there will be a few showers at times, especially in the north and east, but these showers will be light. So, overall there’ll be plenty of dry weather.”
And will there be snow?
Aoife said, “Given the cold conditions, on Thursday and Friday it’s possible that some showers will turn to hail or sleet with a chance of some snow, particularly over higher ground. But even where the showers do turn wintry, accumulations will be very small.”
How long will the cold spell last?
Uncertainty increases from the weekend onwards. Current indications suggest that conditions will remain colder than average with further showers, turning wintry at times. However, there is also potential for some longer spells of rain if milder air makes its way across us from the south.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area, please visit www.met.ie.
For advice on winter weather preparation, please visit www.winterready.ie.
Storm Ciarán has been named by the UK Met Office on Sunday 29th October. The storm is due to pass close to the south coast of Ireland on Wednesday night, 1st November. Showers and longer spells of rain will continue through the Bank Holiday weekend and into next week ahead of Storm Ciarán.
A weather advisory has been issued for the coming days as the unsettled weather continues to have an impact across the country.
Advisory for Ireland
On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, there will be heavy showers or longer spells of rain at times over Ireland with flooding likely in places, as soils are saturated and river levels are high.
Later Wednesday and on Thursday, Storm Ciaran will bring falls of heavy rain and strong winds. Current indications suggest the heaviest rain and strongest winds will be in Munster and Leinster with flooding likely.
Valid: 14:40 Sunday 29/10/2023 to 23:30 Thursday 02/11/2023
Issued: 14:41 Sunday 29/10/2023
Low pressure will continue to dominate Ireland’s weather for the week ahead, bringing further heavy showers and rain. With already significant rainfall amounts over the past weeks, ground conditions are saturated or waterlogged nationwide and many rivers are high. As a result, the risk of flooding in the coming days is increased.
Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy said “Even today (Sunday), heavy showers will bring a risk of localised flooding, especially to western areas and the north midlands. So, a yellow rain warning is in place for Cavan, Monaghan, Connacht, Longford, Louth and Westmeath until 9pm Sunday.”
There will be very little respite from the rain ahead of Storm Ciarán, as showers and spells of rain will continue on Monday and Tuesday.
Aoife continued “Further heavy showers on Monday will add to already high rainfall accumulations. Then, more widespread and potentially heavy rain on Tuesday will lead to a further deterioration in ground conditions and river levels. So, there will be an ongoing risk of localised flooding as we move into the new week.”
This wet weather in the early days of next week is likely to exacerbate the impact of Storm Ciarán on Wednesday evening and Thursday. Current indications suggest that the storm will track past our south coast on Wednesday evening and night before moving northeastwards through the Irish Sea and over the UK (see Figure 2 below). As it passes us, it will bring a spell of very wet and windy weather, with heavy rainfall in places. With already wet conditions preceding Storm Ciarán, there will be a heightened risk of flooding, with possible disruption from strong winds also.
Figure 2: Current forecast track of Storm Ciarán on Wednesday night
Currently, there remains some uncertainty in the exact path that Storm Ciarán will take but it is most likely to track past the south coast of Ireland. Updates to the forecast and future warnings in the coming days can be found at https://www.met.ie/warnings
For advice and information on staying save in severe weather, please consult www.winterready.ie
A complex area of low pressure with several embedded fronts, known as Storm Babet, is moving up over the UK today, Wednesday 18th, with its weather fronts bringing bands of heavy rain across Ireland
From the above satellite image we can see large bands of cloud extending from the main low pressure centre just over northern France. These bands of cloud brought significant amounts of rain across southern counties on Tuesday and today (Wednesday).
Met Eireann had orange level rainfall warnings out for Cork, Kerry and Waterford with significant accumulations reported in these counties as of Wednesday morning.
Met Eireann meteorologist Mark Bowe said “coastal parts of Cork got the worst of the rain with reports of flooding and road closures.”
Bowe continued, “the heavy rain is still moving north so we have extended our orange warning in Waterford until later this afternoon and also added Wexford and Wicklow to the orange warnings”
Heavy and persistent rain is due to move over these southern counties today with flooding likely and significant travel disruption.
As the fronts associated with Babet continue to move north over the country we can expect heavy rain at times in all counties and with this Met Eireann also have yellow level rainfall warnings in place across the country.
These warnings will continue right through to later this evening when the last of the heavy rain moves off northern parts of the country tonight
Fig 2 : HARMONIE Rainfall Forecast
Looking ahead to the end of the week Bowe mentioned, “the wet and unsettled weather will stay with us after Babet is gone I’m afraid. Low pressure stays in charge with showers or spells of rain across the country right out to the weekend, with the potential for further yellow rainfall warnings”
Forecasters are monitoring the evolution of Storm Babet and its effects as it passes over the country so be sure to be safe and stay up to date with the latest warnings on www.met.ie/warnings
We are monitoring the development of these events closely. Stay safe and keep up to date with the further updates and the latest warnings on https://www.met.ie/warnings.
Storm Agnes has been named by the UK Met Office on the morning of Monday September 25th. This significant weather event is due to make land fall over Ireland on Wednesday September 27th. Ahead of its arrival Met Éireann have issued a number of wind and rainfall warnings across counties in Leinster, and Munster. The UK Met Office have also issued warnings for Ulster.
This developing storm is currently out in the mid-Atlantic. Our latest analysis chart shows the weather system in its infant stage.
The infra-red satellite image from 12Z on Monday the 25th of September shows the large mass of cloud which will eventually develop into Storm Agnes.
Over the next few hours and days this developing area of low pressure will be taken up by the jet stream and undergo rapid deepening.
Shown below is the jet stream prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s (ECMWF) model. Highlighted in blue is Storm Agnes modelled at 12Z today September the 25th.
Moving on another 24 hrs to 12Z on Tuesday September the 26th we can see the low has moved across the Atlantic, being taken up by the jet stream. It has also been deepened significantly.
Looking ahead to 06Z on Wednesday the 27th of September, the day the storm will make landfall, we can see how the low pressure has transitioned to the northern side of the jet stream and undergone further deepening.
Storm Agnes is likely to make landfall late Wednesday morning and for now a number of weather warnings have been issued in response. These warnings are likely to be updated as further modelling data becomes available.
Currently, the strongest winds are forecast to impact the south and south-east of the country. However, the latest guidance from our high-resolution ensemble prediction system, IREPS, demonstrates the current uncertainty in the exact track of Storm Agnes.
Each dot in the image above shows where an individual forecast from IREPS has forecast the centre of the cyclone to track over Ireland. As we move closer to the event, IREPS will be able to give more certainty with regards to the exact track of Storm Agnes.
We are monitoring the development of this storm closely and further updates to our warnings will be issued. Please keep up to date with the latest warnings on https://www.met.ie/warnings.
After a very wet and unsettled July and August, fine and largely settled conditions have returned for the first week of September.
These warm conditions are due to an area of low pressure to the west of the Iberia which, coupled with high pressure over Scandinavia is advecting warm and humid air over Ireland.
Fig 1: ECMWF Airmass Temperatures for the rest of the week (850mb Wet Bult Potential Temperature)
Meteorologist with Met Éireann Emer Flood explains, “High pressure looks set to dominate our weather for the rest of the week bringing generally fine and settled conditions. Daytime temperatures will reach into the early 20s for much of the country, with parts of the south midlands reaching 25°C or above. These warm daytime temperatures will be coupled with nighttime temperatures not dropping any lower than the early teens leading to some uncomfortable sleeping conditions in the coming days.
Fig 2: Harmonie Maximum and Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday (6th of September)
Last night a minimum temperature of 20.7°C was recorded at Valentia, which is provisionally the first recorded tropical night of the year.
Climatologist with Met Éireann Dr. Sandra Spillane states, “We recorded temperatures greater than 25.0°C at a number of our stations yesterday (Monday the 5th of September) so we’ll be keeping a close eye on temperatures over the coming days to see if heatwave criteria are reached”.
A heatwave occurs at a Met Éireann station when the daily maximum shaded air temperature is greater than twenty-five degrees Celsius (> 25.0°C) for five or more consecutive days. More information on hot weather conditions can be found in our Summer Centre.
So will the fine weather stay with us for the weekend?
Emer continues, “While many areas will see fine and dry weather right out the weekend, there will be showers at times, in the west on Wednesday, but further east towards the end of the week with the chance of some thundery downpours.”
“The models are showing a breakdown to cooler and more unsettled weather early next week although there is still a lot of uncertainty at this stage”.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
For advice on how to stay safe in fine weather, check Be Summer-Ready.
Meteorologist's Commentary
Potentially impactful weather Friday 18th October and over the weekend (19th- 20th October) - Storm Ashley
Saturday 19th October 2024 updates:
The meteorological information provided below (see “Overview”) is still valid and Storm Ashley has been confirmed as a rapid deepening or explosive cyclogenesis system. It is worth emphasising the complex scenario Storm Ashley will bring to coastal areas of the country, especially as it coincides with to some of the highest tides of the year.
Storm Ashley will also bring spells of heavy rain on Sunday, which is likely to lead to localised flooding in urban areas and small river catchments, as this rain is falling on already saturated and waterlogged ground.
In view of all this, Met Éireann has updated the weather warnings in place for Sunday and added a new yellow rainfall warning (see latest warnings here). Therefore, it is important to re-emphasize the main impacts expected:
Please remember to “Stay Back, Stay High, Stay Dry” at all times during this event and have a look at the below section “How to Stay Safe in Extreme Weather” for detailed public authorities’ advice.
The following information is valid on Friday 18th October 2024 and until further update
OVERVIEW
Storm Ashley has been named by Met Éireann, becoming the first storm of the 2024/2025 season.
Storm Ashley is a low-pressure system currently developing in the western North Atlantic, on the southern side of the Jet Stream. It is expected to travel quickly eastwards over the Atlantic this weekend, crossing to the northern side of the Jet Stream, becoming positioned in the left exit region (a developmental area of the Jet) which will cause it to undergo rapid deepening later on Saturday.
Fig 1- ECMWF 00z Run Friday 18th Oct showing atmospheric pressure (black lines) overlayed with the Jet Stream (purple colour), showing how the jet stream will deepen Ashley over the weekend into a storm depression and steer it to the northwest of Ireland and the UK (see Sunday slide below)
The system will become a storm depression as it swings up to the west and northwest of Ireland on Saturday night and Sunday.
Fig 2 – ECMWF 00z Run Friday 18th Oct showing atmospheric pressure (black lines) overlaid with the Jet Stream (purple colour), showing Storm Ashley in on the northern part of the jet stream, impacting Ireland and the UK on Sunday.
Met Éireann’s meteorologist Liz Walsh, says:
“Storm Ashley will bring strong southerly winds overnight on Saturday night and early Sunday with a second wave of even stronger south-westerly winds, accompanied by damaging gusts across the country, from mid-morning on Sunday, right though the afternoon and into the evening in some parts.”
She continues:
“We are currently in a period of exceptionally high spring tides, and this, tied in with the strong winds and high waves, will substantially increase the risk of coastal flooding, especially along Atlantic coasts”.
At this time, Met Éireann has issued an Orange Wind Warning for some western counties and a Yellow Wind Warning for Ireland, for Sunday, but the warnings are likely to be updated as more information from our high-resolution models comes in and is analysed by our meteorologists (latest warnings here).
KEY INFORMATION – SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
The potential impacts of Storm Ashley are:
NOTE THAT:
The warnings are likely to be updated. Please keep in touch with Met Éireann’s social media channels, www.met.ie and the Met Éireann app to stay up to date with the forecast and any warnings’ updates.
The timing and location of extreme weather occurrences can significantly affect their impact. It’s important to note that in any individual weather event, not every location within a warning area may experience the same degree of weather or impacts.
When severe weather is expected, weather and impacts at lower levels are also likely to be experienced. The type and level of impacts can be strongly affected by previous weather conditions. When issuing a warning, Met Éireann takes into consideration the forecasted conditions and thresholds, as well as previous weather conditions that may increase the level of impact expected for particular areas.
HOW TO STAY SAFE IN EXTREME WEATHER
WHY AND HOW ARE STORMS NAMED?
Storms are named when they could cause ‘medium’ or ‘high’ impacts in one of the three partner countries. This enables consistent, authoritative messaging to the public and other stakeholders to help them to prepare for and stay safe during potentially severe weather events.
Since 2015, Met Éireann and the UK Met Office have been working together on the naming programme and were joined by the Netherlands’ KNMI in 2019, to form the ‘western group’ of European weather services.
When a storm is forecast, the national weather service that expects the biggest impact from the severe weather to hit its region, or is likely to be first affected by it, names the storm. Storm naming happens in conjunction with orange/red weather warnings, which could be for wind, rain or snow, or a combination of these conditions. Those warnings are, in turn, issued based on a combination of numerical thresholds and the potential impacts foreseen.
HOW ARE STORM NAMES CHOSEN?
Met Éireann, the UK Met Office and KNMI publish a new list of storm names for each Storm Season, which commences on 1st September.
This 2024/25 season, each of the three meteorological services contributed seven names to the season’s list. Met Éireann’s contributions to this year’s list were taken from more than 500 suggestions by primary school children participating in ESB Science Blast last February.
The full 2024/25 list is Ashley, Bert, Conall, Darragh, Éowyn, Floris, Gerben, Hugo, Izzy, James, Kayleigh, Lewis, Mavis, Naoise, Otje, Poppy, Rafi, Sayuri, Tilly, Vivienne, Wren, with Met Éireann contributing the names for C, D, H, I, N, P and V (names chosen by Met Éireann in bold).
(Note – letters Q, U, X, Y, Z are not included, in line with the US National Hurricane Centre naming convention.)
PAST STORM SEASONS OVERVIEW
For more information on storm names and past storms, see Storm Centre and Major Weather Events
The following information is valid on Thursday, 17th October 2024 and until further update.
Summary – A weather advisory has been issued for Ireland
This Friday, a brief period of heavy rain and strong winds across the country is expected.
We are monitoring another low-pressure system which could undergo rapid deepening on Saturday with the potential for strong winds and potentially a named storm; however, uncertainty still exists about this event.
Additionally, we are currently in one of the highest Spring tides of the year and this, tied in with any strong winds and high waves will increase the risk of coastal flooding.
Weather warnings for Saturday/Sunday, related to the Advisory issued for Ireland today, will be issued starting tomorrow, Friday 18th October, when Met Éireann’s high–resolution model provides an updated situation about the evolution of the low pressure system, and our meteorologists analyse it.
Meteorological situation
The Jet Stream is expected to become very active across the Atlantic later this week and into this weekend which allowing it to pick up low-pressure systems and deepen them as they cross the Atlantic. The first low pressure system of interest (Figure 1 forecast time 12Z on Friday) is currently off the coast of Newfoundland, (Canada) as of Wednesday 16th October, and this system will undergo a period of deepening as it tracks towards Iceland by Friday night. Even though the low itself won’t impact us directly, an associated active frontal system will move eastwards over Ireland on Friday. All areas are likely to see a brief period of heavy rain and strong winds during the day on Friday.
We are currently in one of the highest Spring tides of the year and unusually high tides mean coastal flooding is possible. These exceptionally high Spring tides are due to the current proximity of the moon to the earth leading to an increased gravitational pull. Given the high astronomical tides any strong winds and high waves will increase the risk of coastal flooding, especially along Atlantic coasts.
Fig 1- Wind and Temperature forecasts at 300 hPa and the Geopotential at 500 hPa
However, our meteorologists’ gaze is also turning towards a different area of low pressure (see Figure 2 below, forecast time 00Z on Sunday), which will be developing in the western North Atlantic, about 500 nautical miles southwest of Nova Scotia. This low-pressure system is expected to travel quickly eastwards over the Atlantic this weekend. Current guidance suggests that this low will be on the southern side of the Jet Stream on Friday and will then cross over to the northern left exit region of the Jet Stream on Saturday. This system is then expected to undergo a period of rapid deepening, creating a storm depression as it swings up to the northwest of Ireland around Saturday night or Sunday morning.
Fig 2: Wind and Temperature forecasts at 300 hPa and the Geopotential at 500 hPa
“There is still a lot of uncertainty in the details at this time, but the potential is there for strong winds and therefore a named storm on Saturday night into Sunday” said Liz Walsh, Met Éireann Meteorologist.
Updated information can be expected as the situation evolves and we analyse model data. Keep up to date with the forecast through your usual channels and for live updates, check met.ie or the Met Éireann app.
Heavy Rainfall Event, Weekend of October 5/6th 2024 - UPDATED
UPDATE ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FORECAST FOR the weekend of 5th-6th OCTOBER
The following information is valid at 15:30, Friday 4th October 2024 until further updates.
The meteorological situation described yesterday (below) is still valid, with a band of rain expected to trail over the country from Friday night (4th October) through to Saturday night (5th October), with the heaviest and most persistent rain forecast over the southwest and west of the country, particularly over counties Kerry and Cork.
The low pressure system will be slow moving and updates from our models this morning have led to a revision of the warnings issued yesterday. The orange rainfall warnings for Kerry and Cork have been extended for an additional hour to midnight on Saturday (valid from 00:00 Saturday 5th to 00:00 Sunday 6th). Waterford has also been elevated to an orange rainfall warning, valid from 12:00 Saturday to 00:00 Sunday. This is due to a combination of factors: heavy rainfall in mountainous regions, soil conditions which have not recovered from last weekend’s rainfall and the heaviest of the rain coinciding with high tide. All this coupled with fresh to strong onshore winds which will exacerbate river levels.
Figure 1 – Rainfall warnings issued by Met Éireann for Saturday 5th October (valid at time of writing on Friday 4th October)
Accumulations of 30-50 mm over 24h are likely in the counties under yellow warning, however rainfall amounts may be higher on windward slopes of the mountains in west Galway and west Mayo. Parts of Cork, Kerry and Waterford will see totals of 50-70 mm over a 24h period, but similarly, higher accumulations can be expected in mountainous regions of west Kerry and west Cork.
Figure 2 –24 Hour Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Probability Maps, available to the public here ( 24 Hour Precipitation – Met Éireann – The Irish Meteorological Service). The image shows the probability of rainfall accumulations over certain thresholds for this Saturday 5th October to Sunday 6th October.
In view of this, updates to potential impacts expected are:
Please keep in touch with Met Éireann’s social media channels, www.met.ie and the Met Éireann app to stay up to date with the forecast and any updates to the warnings.
The timing and location of weather can significantly affect its impact. It’s important to note that in any individual weather event, not every location within a warning area may experience the same degree of weather or impacts.
When severe weather is expected, weather and impacts at lower levels are also likely to be experienced. The type and degree of impacts can be strongly affected by previous weather conditions. Met Éireann takes into consideration the forecasted conditions and thresholds, as well as previous weather conditions, that may increase the level of impact expected for particular areas when issuing a warning.
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO PRIOR TO AND DURING EXTREME WEATHER? PUBLIC SAFETY INFORMATION AND MESSAGES FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STAKEHOLDERS
____________________________________________________________________________________
METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION
The following information is valid at 18:00, Thursday 3rd October 2024 until further updates.
Through Friday night (4th October) and into Saturday (5th October) a broad area of low pressure will move over Ireland introducing a milder and moist airmass. The progression of this system across Ireland will be stalled due to high pressure over central Europe. A band of rain associated with this system is expected to trail over the country through Saturday 5th October, with the heaviest and most persistent rain forecast over the southwestern and west of the country, particularly over counties Kerry and Cork.
Figure 1 – Rainfall forecast for Friday (4th October) to Sunday (6th October)
Deputy Head of Forecasting Liz Coleman said: “Friday will be a cloudy and damp day with rain and drizzle in many areas, but the impactful rain will start from Friday night onwards and the rain will be heavy and persistent in many areas for much of Saturday.
Through Saturday, high pressure in the mid-Atlantic, together with an area of low-pressure further north, will work in tandem to drag warm tropical air up over the country. As we know, the warmer the air, the higher its ability to hold moisture, so this event has the potential to be quite impactful.”
Figure 2 – Airmass Temperature and Surface Pressure chart, showing area of low-pressure (L) to the west of Ireland, working in tandem with an area of high-pressure (H) in the mid-Atlantic, which has its origin over warm seas in the tropics (dark orange and red airmass)
Liz Coleman continues: “While much of the west and southwest are forecast to receive over 30mm of rain in a 24h period, our models are currently predicting in excess of 50mm of rain over parts of southwest Kerry and west Cork, with higher accumulations possible in mountainous areas.”
Figure 3 –24 Hour Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Probability Maps, available to the public here ( 24 Hour Precipitation – Met Éireann – The Irish Meteorological Service). The image shows the probability of rainfall accumulations over certain thresholds for this Friday 4th October and Saturday 5th October.
At the time of writing, Met Éireann has issued an ORANGE rainfall warning for counties Cork and Kerry (Valid: 00:00 to 23:00 Saturday 05/10/2024) and a YELLOW rainfall warning for counties Clare, Limerick, Waterford, Galway and Mayo (Valid: 00:00 Saturday 05/10/2024 to 00:00 Sunday 06/10/2024).
In view of the situation, potential impacts expected are:
The warnings are likely to be updated. Please keep in touch with Met Éireann’s social media channels, www.met.ie and the Met Éireann app to stay up to date with the forecast and any warnings’ updates.
The timing and location of weather can significantly affect its impact. It’s important to note that in any individual weather event, not every location within a warning area may experience the same degree of weather or impacts.
When severe weather is expected, weather and impacts at lower levels are also likely to be experienced. The type and degree of impacts can be strongly affected by previous weather conditions. Met Éireann takes into consideration the forecasted conditions and thresholds, as well as previous weather conditions, that may increase the level of impact expected for particular areas when issuing a warning.
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO PRIOR TO AND DURING EXTREME WEATHER? PUBLIC SAFETY INFORMATION AND MESSAGES FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STAKEHOLDERS
Meteorologists Commentary – Storm Lilian
Storm Lilian has been named by the UK Met Office – what impacts can we expect in Ireland?
Below valid at 12pm on Thursday 22nd August 2024.
The low-pressure system which will deepen and become Storm Lilian over the next 24 hours can be seen in the mid-Atlantic on the 00 UTC surface analysis chart with its associated fronts.
Fig 1: Surface analysis chart 00UTC
Wind Impacts
While the main impacts associated with Storm Lilian will be felt across the UK in the early hours of tomorrow morning, Met Éireann have issued yellow level wind and rain warnings.
Forecaster Brandon Creagh said: “The centre of the low pressure system is expected to track across the middle of country tonight, bringing unseasonably strong and gusty south to southwest winds which will veer west to northwest as the system tracks eastwards.
The strongest of the winds will occur overnight but with the trees still in full leaf, people need to be careful of debris or branches on the roads tomorrow morning.”
Fig 2: Model output wind and gusts.
Gale warnings are also in effect in eastern and southern sea areas.
Ireland is currently in a period of very high tides. There is a High Tide Advisory in effect for all coasts of Ireland, expiring at 12:00 noon tomorrow, Friday, leading to the continued risk of coastal flooding and wave overtopping on coasts affected by onshore winds.
Rainfall Impacts
This system will also bring heavy rainfall over a short time period with current model output showing the likelihood of exceeding 20mm accumulations over a 6 hour period overnight.
Fig 3: Model output cloud and rainfall.
Status yellow rainfall warnings are in effect for a number of counties. Potential impacts from this heavy rainfall include:
Storm Lilian is the first “L” named storm since storm naming commenced in 2015.
Why was the name “Lilian” chosen?
Storm Lilian is named after Lilian Bland, who was an Anglo-Irish journalist and pioneer aviator. She was the first woman in Ireland to build and fly an aircraft, and quite possibly the world’s first woman to build her own airplane, the Bland Mayfly.
For further information on storm naming check https://www.met.ie/forecasts/storm-names.
An unseasonably wet and blustery August bank holiday weekend.
Update – Sunday August 4th 2024
A low-pressure system will steer weather fronts over the country on Sunday and Monday.
This system will bring warm and very moist air, and this has the potential to produce heavy and intense spells of rain, which will fall in a relatively short time.
Expected impacts from the heavy rain will be surface and river flooding as well as disruption to travel.
There are yellow rainfall warnings in place on Sunday for Clare, Donegal and Connacht.
The warnings start at midday and run through to midday on Bank Holiday Monday.
The rain has the potential to cause flooding, damage to temporary structures as well as cause difficult driving conditions.
Early tonight, even heavier rain will move in over the country. Orange rainfall warnings have been issued for Galway, Mayo and Donegal.
The warnings will start at midnight on Sunday and will end at 10:00 on Bank Holiday Monday morning.
As this is a Bank Holiday weekend, there will be many people on holiday, and it is important that they take note of the rainfall warnings and take the appropriate steps to protect themselves.
As well as the unseasonably wet conditions there will be strong winds especially along coasts and over exposed ground so people should take care near the coasts.
The impacts from the rain will continue after the weather warnings cease as there is likely to be surface flooding, as well as runoff from fields and surfaced areas and smaller river catchments impacted by the heavy rain may get out of bank.
Updated on Saturday 03rd August 2024
After a rather pleasant end to July, a broad area of low pressure in the north Atlantic will introduce more unsettled conditions for the August bank holiday weekend. This low pressure will steer frontal systems across Ireland, with spells of heavy rain expected on Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday, coupled with fresh to strong and gusty southerly winds along Atlantic coasts.
Met Éireann forecaster Aoife Kealy said “It’ll feel fresher on Saturday but despite that, it will be the best day of the weekend. Though the temperatures will drop back to the mid to high teens, there’ll be plenty of dry spells and some sunshine between the scattered showers.”
The drier and brighter weather will be short-lived, as the next low pressure system in the north Atlantic drives weather fronts across Ireland on Sunday and Monday.
Aoife explained “This low pressure system will drag a warm, moist airmass with it from the mid-Atlantic. That warm, moisture-laden air will act like fuel for this system, meaning the rain that it brings will be heavy.”
Through Sunday afternoon and much of Monday, that heavy rain will move eastwards across the country. The rain will be heaviest in the west and southwest with flooding possible. Becoming blustery also, with fresh and gusty southerly winds developing, strong on western and southern coasts.
It will also be very mild on Sunday night due to the warm airmass that the low pressure system will introduce. Temperatures will not fall below 14 to 17 degrees, so it will be an uncomfortable night for sleeping.
Aoife continued “With the bank holiday weekend, more people will be out and about and they may not expect the unseasonably wet weather and strong winds. Sunday will not start off too bad but don’t let that lull you into a false sense of security. The rain will get progressively heavier through the afternoon and evening with those southerly winds picking up, so make sure to check the forecast and any warnings for your area before heading out.”
Yellow warnings have been issued for heavy rainfall for counties Clare, Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim and Donegal from Sunday afternoon through to Monday afternoon.
Potential impacts:
Localised flooding
Damage to temporary structures
Difficult travel conditions
Poor visibility
Stay in contact with the forecast over the coming days for the most up to date information on met.ie and on the Met Éireann app, particularly if planning outdoor activities.
Looking ahead to next week, current indications suggest that while it will be largely unsettled with showers and rain at times, no further impactful weather is expected.
Storm Kathleen, Saturday 6th April 2024
Met Éireann have named Storm Kathleen (the 11th storm of the 2023/2024 season).
Below valid at 10am on Friday 5th April 2024.
Storm Kathleen is a significant low-pressure system tracking off the west coast which will bring strong southerly winds and damaging gusts across the country on Saturday.
Met Éireann have issued a nationwide yellow wind warning for Saturday with orange level wind warnings coming into effect for counties Cork, Kerry and Waterford at 7am, valid until 2pm, and counties Galway and Mayo at 9am, valid until 6pm. Storm Kathleen is a dynamic system so there may be updates to the warnings. Please keep in touch with Met Éireann’s social media channels, www.met.ie and the Met Éireann app to stay up to date with the forecasts.
Deputy Head of Forecasting, Liz Coleman said “It is the end of the Easter holidays so there will be a lot of people travelling and they may not be expecting such unseasonably strong and gusty winds. Please make sure to plan your journeys in advance by keeping in contact with the forecast. We are likely to see some trees down due to the saturated soils and strong winds. There will be dangerous conditions at sea too, coupled with wave overtopping and coastal flooding in some areas.”
The rapid deepening of Storm Kathleen is due the interaction of this low-pressure system with a strong southerly jet stream.
The potential impacts of Storm Kathleen are likely to be:
Harmonie model – wind/gust
Storm Kathleen will increase water levels on all coasts as we approach a period of spring tides. This will result in strong coastal winds, a rough sea state and significant waves. Coastal flooding and wave overtopping is likely, especially at times of high tide.
The rain associated with Storm Kathleen will fall on already saturated ground, therefore water will make its way quickly into the rivers. Cumulative rainfall totals could lead to elevated river levels in western and southwestern areas.
It will feel quite mild too for this time of year, as the southerly airflow bring warm air over the country.
Do we frequently get storms in April?
Two storms have been named in April since storm naming began in 2015/2016. Storm Hannah was named by Met Éireann on Fri 26th April 2019, which brought storm force winds to Mace Head. Storm Noa named by Météo France, brought storm force winds to Sherkin island on Wed 12th April 2023.
There was also a storm as late as 14th June 2018, Storm Hector, which brought storm force winds to Mace Head.
Why was the name “Kathleen” chosen?
Storm Kathleen is named after Kathleen “Kay” Antonelli/McNulty and Kathleen Lonsdale. This is one of the 7 names Met Éireann chose for the 2023-24 list. Met Éireann chose names of eminent Irish/Northern-Irish scientists to honour their important contributions to science and benefits for humankind.
Kathleen ‘Kay’ McNulty Mauchly Antonelli: one of the mothers of computer programming.
Kathleen Lonsdale: Irish crystallographer who demonstrated the crystal structure of benzene.
For further information on storm naming check https://www.met.ie/forecasts/storm-names.
First cold snap of 2024 – Friday 05 January 2024
Ireland will experience a respite from the recent wet and windy weather as high pressure builds from the Azores over the weekend and becomes established over Ireland into next week, bringing cold, clear and generally calm conditions with little precipitation.
Figure 1: High Pressure building over Ireland. Colour scale represents airmass temperatures.
Met Éireann meteorologist Liz Coleman explained “It’s going to feel much colder than it has recently, with daytime temperatures in the low single figures and nighttime temperatures falling below zero in most areas. Widespread frost is expected with some ice, although generally dry conditions will limit ice formation to mainly areas of standing water or run off. Nevertheless, do take care while out and about.
While it will be cold, it will be mainly dry with sunny spells as the high pressure will prevent any significant rainfall.
Liz said “There will be showers at times in the north and west over the weekend and in the east through next week but rainfall amounts will be low. So a lot of dry weather in the forecast”.
Figure 2: Rainfall and pressure forecast
Liz continued “The cold temperatures coupled with near calm conditions means fog will also be a feature of our weather, particularly over the weekend. Dense fog patches are likely on Saturday and Sunday night. With little wind to clear the fog, it may linger into the daytime in some areas leading to tricky travelling conditions. Our forecasters will be monitoring the situation and will issue warnings as required.
Make sure to check in on the forecast and warnings for your areas on met.ie
Current indications suggest that high pressure will be in control of our weather until next weekend when the models show a breakdown to more unsettled, but still cold weather. Although there is a lot of uncertainty that far ahead in the forecast.
The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Visit our Weather Warnings page.
For advice and information on staying save in severe weather, please consult www.winterready.ie
Unsettled weather to end 2023 but a bright start to 2024!
A slow moving low pressure system will dominate Ireland’s weather over the weekend, bringing strong and gusty winds through Saturday and into Sunday, which will be accompanied by heavy rain and thundery showers.
Figure 1: Low pressure tracking across the country this weekend
Met Éireann meteorologist Liz Coleman said “There is a lot of weather coming our way over the weekend. South-easterly winds will veer westerly and intensify on Friday night as a band of rain crosses the country. The rain will be heavy at times with localised flooding possible, leading to difficult travelling conditions. Gales along coasts coupled with spring tides may lead to wave overtopping on exposed coasts”.
Figure 2: Wind Forecast
Met Éireann have issued wind and rain warnings. Details can be found on the Weather Warnings page.
There will be some respite from the rain through the afternoon on Saturday as it clears into the Irish sea by the afternoon. However southwest to west winds will continue strong and gusty steering some heavy and possibly thundery showers over mainly the western of the country through Saturday.
Liz continued “By Sunday morning (New Years Eve) the winds will have veered northwesterly with counties Clare, Cork and Kerry experiencing the most intense winds with the ongoing potential for wave overtopping in coastal areas. A mix of sunny spells and scattered showers are expected countrywide for the rest of the day.
Figure 3: Rainfall and Cloud forecast
The showers and winds will ease somewhat for midnight New Years celebrations with a sunny start in many areas on New Years Day and isolated showers. Cloud will thicken from the southwest through the afternoon with a further spell of rain late on Monday.
Make sure to check in on the forecast and warnings for your areas when making plans for the weekend on met.ie
The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android. Visit our Weather Warnings page.
For advice and information on staying save in severe weather, please consult www.winterready.ie
A weekend of stormy weather
By Meteorologist Michelle Dillon
An active jet-stream this weekend has been leading to the development and deepening of low-pressure systems out in the Atlantic steering stormy weather over Ireland.
Two storms have been named by Met Éireann, the 5th and 6th storms of the current storm-naming season, Storm Elin & Storm Fergus. Storm Elin was named overnight and is impacting Ireland today, with orange level wind warnings for Donegal, Dublin & Wicklow for a time. Storm Fergus was named this morning and will impact Ireland later tomorrow and early tomorrow night (Sunday 10th December), with orange level wind warnings for Clare, Galway & Mayo. Yellow level wind warnings have also been issued for both events for many counties along with a status yellow rainfall warning for today for Donegal. For more detail on warnings check met.ie/warnings.
Storm Elin, Saturday 9th December
Taking a look firstly at Storm Elin. On Friday night, Storm Elin developed through the engagement of the left exit of a jet streak with a surface elongated trough out to the west of Ireland. Elin then quickly tracked eastwards over the north of the country this morning, generating strong to gale force west to northwest winds overland. The storm centre will continue to move eastwards over Scotland this afternoon, but with strong to gale force and gusty west to northwest winds in its wake. Those winds will gradually ease early tonight.
Analysis chart showing the development are of Storm Elin below:
Chart showing the jet stream and pressure pattern below: Storm Elin developed in the area highlighted above where elongated trough interacts with the left exit of a jet streak.
Harmonie evolution of Storm Elin is shown below:
Storm Fergus, Sunday 10th December
A rapidly deepening wave depression, currently forming in the mid-Atlantic as it interacts with a left exit region of a jet streak, will continue to develop into Storm Fergus and approach from the southwest through today, tonight and tomorrow. It had an initial pressure of 996hpa and is expected to deepen to around 968hpa out in the Atlantic early tonight, so meeting the criteria for rapid cyclogenesis. It will fill a little then as it tracks towards Ireland and is expected to make landfall tomorrow evening along the west coast with a central pressure of approximately 980hpa. Met Éireann Meteorologist, Michelle Dillon, said: “Strong to gale force southwest winds veering westerly will be developing through Sunday afternoon, evening and early Sunday night as Storm Fergus tracks eastwards across the country, filling a little as it does. Storm surge will lead to high seas and along with the stormy conditions, there’s the possibility of coastal flooding along parts of the west coast, particularly at high tide.”
Analysis chart at 12Z on December 9th, showing the development of Storm Fergus still well out in the Atlantic.
Chart showing the jet stream and pressure pattern below: Storm Fergus is developing from a wave depression where it is interacting with the left exit of a jet streak.
Harmonie evolution of storm Fergus is shown below:
High or very high seas off the west coast tomorrow:
Cold spell continues this weekend and into early next week.
There is increasing confidence that the current cold spell will last until Tuesday night. A nationwide yellow low temperature/ice warning in place from Friday evening until Sunday afternoon as widespread frost and icy stretches develop. A nationwide yellow fog warning is in place for the same period as dense fog and some patches of freezing fog develop, exacerbating the already hazardous conditions. The warnings will be monitored and reviewed/extended if necessary so keep in touch with the forecast.
Meteorologist Aoife Kealy explained the situation; “There’ll be scattered showers for Friday and the weekend. Most of those will fall as rain but there will still be some hail, sleet and snow at times. Then, on Sunday night a low pressure system will track past the south coast. That could bring some rain and drizzle to eastern and southern coastal counties with some sleet possible too. That system doesn’t look like it will move up over the country so this will allow the cold conditions to persist.”
Daytime temperatures in the coming days will often range from 1 to 5 degrees, with night time temperatures often falling to 0 to -4 degrees or below. As a result, there will be widespread frost and icy stretches, combined with areas of dense fog and freezing fog.
Aoife added, “Because it’ll be so cold, the frost and ice will linger in places right through the day. Areas of fog and freezing fog will be slow to clear from places during the day too. That’ll all combine to make for hazardous travel conditions, poor visibility and slippery conditions underfoot.”
Monday and Tuesday will be cold but dry for many. However, there will be a few showers at times in the east and southeast and once again, these may turn to hail and sleet with a chance of snow on high ground.
Aoife continued, “At the moment it looks like this cold spell will stay with us through Monday and most of Tuesday. After that, current indications point towards a low pressure system spreading from the Atlantic later on Tuesday and on Wednesday, bringing widespread rain and milder conditions. However, there is a chance that as that rain meets the cold air over us, some of it may fall as sleet or snow. But that’ll be short-lived as the milder air will quickly follow.”
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area, please visit www.met.ie.
For advice on winter weather preparation, please visit www.winterready.ie.
Cold Spell as we near Meteorological Winter
Meteorological winter begins on Friday 1st of December. As that date approaches, a northerly airflow will become established over Ireland, introducing much colder conditions, with widespread frost and some ice developing each night. There will be occasional showers through the week too, which may turn wintry, but these showers will be quite light with minimal accumulations.
How cold will it be?
Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy explained, “An Arctic airmass is going to sink across us this week, bringing noticeably colder conditions than we’ve had lately. Daytime temperatures will struggle to get above the low single figures, especially from Wednesday onwards. Night time temperatures will be near freezing or below through the week too so that means there’ll be widespread frost and some ice. On top of that, light winds will allow fog to develop overnight, becoming dense in places. Any frost, ice and fog will be slow to clear in the mornings making travel difficult at times. So, extra care will be needed on the roads.”
Is it going to be wet or dry?
While it will be cold, the week will be largely dry with some spells of sunshine. High pressure will often be near Ireland through the period, bringing generally settled conditions and preventing any significant rainfall.
Aoife continued “There’s potential for patchy rain in the south on Wednesday night and there will be a few showers at times, especially in the north and east, but these showers will be light. So, overall there’ll be plenty of dry weather.”
And will there be snow?
Aoife said, “Given the cold conditions, on Thursday and Friday it’s possible that some showers will turn to hail or sleet with a chance of some snow, particularly over higher ground. But even where the showers do turn wintry, accumulations will be very small.”
How long will the cold spell last?
Uncertainty increases from the weekend onwards. Current indications suggest that conditions will remain colder than average with further showers, turning wintry at times. However, there is also potential for some longer spells of rain if milder air makes its way across us from the south.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area, please visit www.met.ie.
For advice on winter weather preparation, please visit www.winterready.ie.
issued: 1600hrs Monday 27 November 2023
A very unsettled end to October and start to November with Storm Ciarán on the way
Storm Ciarán has been named by the UK Met Office on Sunday 29th October. The storm is due to pass close to the south coast of Ireland on Wednesday night, 1st November. Showers and longer spells of rain will continue through the Bank Holiday weekend and into next week ahead of Storm Ciarán.
A weather advisory has been issued for the coming days as the unsettled weather continues to have an impact across the country.
Advisory for Ireland
On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, there will be heavy showers or longer spells of rain at times over Ireland with flooding likely in places, as soils are saturated and river levels are high.
Later Wednesday and on Thursday, Storm Ciaran will bring falls of heavy rain and strong winds. Current indications suggest the heaviest rain and strongest winds will be in Munster and Leinster with flooding likely.
Additional Impacts:
Poor visibility,
Difficult/dangerous driving conditions
Valid: 14:40 Sunday 29/10/2023 to 23:30 Thursday 02/11/2023
Issued: 14:41 Sunday 29/10/2023
Low pressure will continue to dominate Ireland’s weather for the week ahead, bringing further heavy showers and rain. With already significant rainfall amounts over the past weeks, ground conditions are saturated or waterlogged nationwide and many rivers are high. As a result, the risk of flooding in the coming days is increased.
Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy said “Even today (Sunday), heavy showers will bring a risk of localised flooding, especially to western areas and the north midlands. So, a yellow rain warning is in place for Cavan, Monaghan, Connacht, Longford, Louth and Westmeath until 9pm Sunday.”
Visit our Weather Warnings page.
There will be very little respite from the rain ahead of Storm Ciarán, as showers and spells of rain will continue on Monday and Tuesday.
Aoife continued “Further heavy showers on Monday will add to already high rainfall accumulations. Then, more widespread and potentially heavy rain on Tuesday will lead to a further deterioration in ground conditions and river levels. So, there will be an ongoing risk of localised flooding as we move into the new week.”
This wet weather in the early days of next week is likely to exacerbate the impact of Storm Ciarán on Wednesday evening and Thursday. Current indications suggest that the storm will track past our south coast on Wednesday evening and night before moving northeastwards through the Irish Sea and over the UK (see Figure 2 below). As it passes us, it will bring a spell of very wet and windy weather, with heavy rainfall in places. With already wet conditions preceding Storm Ciarán, there will be a heightened risk of flooding, with possible disruption from strong winds also.
Figure 2: Current forecast track of Storm Ciarán on Wednesday night
Currently, there remains some uncertainty in the exact path that Storm Ciarán will take but it is most likely to track past the south coast of Ireland. Updates to the forecast and future warnings in the coming days can be found at https://www.met.ie/warnings
For advice and information on staying save in severe weather, please consult www.winterready.ie
Heavy rain associated with Storm Babet continues to affect Ireland - updated Wednesday
A complex area of low pressure with several embedded fronts, known as Storm Babet, is moving up over the UK today, Wednesday 18th, with its weather fronts bringing bands of heavy rain across Ireland
From the above satellite image we can see large bands of cloud extending from the main low pressure centre just over northern France. These bands of cloud brought significant amounts of rain across southern counties on Tuesday and today (Wednesday).
Met Eireann had orange level rainfall warnings out for Cork, Kerry and Waterford with significant accumulations reported in these counties as of Wednesday morning.
Met Eireann meteorologist Mark Bowe said “coastal parts of Cork got the worst of the rain with reports of flooding and road closures.”
Bowe continued, “the heavy rain is still moving north so we have extended our orange warning in Waterford until later this afternoon and also added Wexford and Wicklow to the orange warnings”
Heavy and persistent rain is due to move over these southern counties today with flooding likely and significant travel disruption.
As the fronts associated with Babet continue to move north over the country we can expect heavy rain at times in all counties and with this Met Eireann also have yellow level rainfall warnings in place across the country.
These warnings will continue right through to later this evening when the last of the heavy rain moves off northern parts of the country tonight
Fig 2 : HARMONIE Rainfall Forecast
Looking ahead to the end of the week Bowe mentioned, “the wet and unsettled weather will stay with us after Babet is gone I’m afraid. Low pressure stays in charge with showers or spells of rain across the country right out to the weekend, with the potential for further yellow rainfall warnings”
Forecasters are monitoring the evolution of Storm Babet and its effects as it passes over the country so be sure to be safe and stay up to date with the latest warnings on www.met.ie/warnings
Fig 3 : ECMWF Mean Sea Level Pressure & Rainfall Forecast
We are monitoring the development of these events closely. Stay safe and keep up to date with the further updates and the latest warnings on https://www.met.ie/warnings.
Storm Agnes
Storm Agnes has been named by the UK Met Office on the morning of Monday September 25th. This significant weather event is due to make land fall over Ireland on Wednesday September 27th. Ahead of its arrival Met Éireann have issued a number of wind and rainfall warnings across counties in Leinster, and Munster. The UK Met Office have also issued warnings for Ulster.
This developing storm is currently out in the mid-Atlantic. Our latest analysis chart shows the weather system in its infant stage.
The infra-red satellite image from 12Z on Monday the 25th of September shows the large mass of cloud which will eventually develop into Storm Agnes.
Over the next few hours and days this developing area of low pressure will be taken up by the jet stream and undergo rapid deepening.
Shown below is the jet stream prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s (ECMWF) model. Highlighted in blue is Storm Agnes modelled at 12Z today September the 25th.
Moving on another 24 hrs to 12Z on Tuesday September the 26th we can see the low has moved across the Atlantic, being taken up by the jet stream. It has also been deepened significantly.
Looking ahead to 06Z on Wednesday the 27th of September, the day the storm will make landfall, we can see how the low pressure has transitioned to the northern side of the jet stream and undergone further deepening.
Storm Agnes is likely to make landfall late Wednesday morning and for now a number of weather warnings have been issued in response. These warnings are likely to be updated as further modelling data becomes available.
Currently, the strongest winds are forecast to impact the south and south-east of the country. However, the latest guidance from our high-resolution ensemble prediction system, IREPS, demonstrates the current uncertainty in the exact track of Storm Agnes.
Each dot in the image above shows where an individual forecast from IREPS has forecast the centre of the cyclone to track over Ireland. As we move closer to the event, IREPS will be able to give more certainty with regards to the exact track of Storm Agnes.
We are monitoring the development of this storm closely and further updates to our warnings will be issued. Please keep up to date with the latest warnings on https://www.met.ie/warnings.
A warm start to Autumn
Issued 5th of September 2023
After a very wet and unsettled July and August, fine and largely settled conditions have returned for the first week of September.
These warm conditions are due to an area of low pressure to the west of the Iberia which, coupled with high pressure over Scandinavia is advecting warm and humid air over Ireland.
Meteorologist with Met Éireann Emer Flood explains, “High pressure looks set to dominate our weather for the rest of the week bringing generally fine and settled conditions. Daytime temperatures will reach into the early 20s for much of the country, with parts of the south midlands reaching 25°C or above. These warm daytime temperatures will be coupled with nighttime temperatures not dropping any lower than the early teens leading to some uncomfortable sleeping conditions in the coming days.
Last night a minimum temperature of 20.7°C was recorded at Valentia, which is provisionally the first recorded tropical night of the year.
Climatologist with Met Éireann Dr. Sandra Spillane states, “We recorded temperatures greater than 25.0°C at a number of our stations yesterday (Monday the 5th of September) so we’ll be keeping a close eye on temperatures over the coming days to see if heatwave criteria are reached”.
A heatwave occurs at a Met Éireann station when the daily maximum shaded air temperature is greater than twenty-five degrees Celsius (> 25.0°C) for five or more consecutive days. More information on hot weather conditions can be found in our Summer Centre.
So will the fine weather stay with us for the weekend?
Emer continues, “While many areas will see fine and dry weather right out the weekend, there will be showers at times, in the west on Wednesday, but further east towards the end of the week with the chance of some thundery downpours.”
“The models are showing a breakdown to cooler and more unsettled weather early next week although there is still a lot of uncertainty at this stage”.
For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.
For advice on how to stay safe in fine weather, check Be Summer-Ready.
Forecasts