The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 28 JANUARY 2025
Week 1 (Monday 03 February to Sunday 09 February)
Week 1 will likely start February off with high pressure to the east and low pressure to the northwest, with a signal for higher than normal temperature values for the time of year. Due to the likely predominately southwesterly airflow generated by the relative pressure systems, precipitation amounts may also run slightly higher than average for the time of year.
Week 2 (Monday 10 February to Sunday 16 February)
By week 2, low pressure is signaled to be more dominant through the period, again with temperatures signaled to run higher than normal for mid-February. Precipitation amounts will also again likely run higher than normal, with a stronger signal for week 2 than for week 1.
Week 3 (Monday 17 February to Sunday 23 February)
By week 3, confidence in the forecast decreases with only a slight signal for high pressure to build to the south of Ireland. Temperatures are signalled to be slightly higher than average for the period, with precipitation amounts again signalled to be higher than average.
Week 4 (Monday 24 February to Sunday 02 March)
For week 4, confidence in the forecast again decreases, with little in the way of a signal for any specific pressure pattern dominating our weather. Temperatures are nevertheless signaled to be above average for the time of year, with more in the way of a mixed signal for precipitation amounts.
Seasonal Outlook for February, March and April 2025 (FMA)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the FMA period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain but there is a signal for wetter than average spells of weather, particularly in February.
Mean temperatures during FMA are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.5 and 1.0°C above average generally, with a chance of temperatures up to 2.0°C above normal in February.
The rainfall forecast is less certain but there is potential for wetter than average conditions across the three months, especially in February and early in March.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to be above average during FMA, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be closest to normal near northern coasts.