The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here: Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 20 FEBRUARY 2026
Week 1 – Monday 23rd February to Sunday 01st March
The trend during this period is for low pressure to be more dominant over Ireland. This indicates unsettled conditions with low pressure systems bringing occasional spells of wet and windy weather over Ireland. Most places will likely see spells of rain with higher than average precipitation forecasted overall, but the heaviest rain looks more focussed in the west and southwest than in the east. Temperatures are expected to trend above average.
Week 2 – Monday 02nd March to Sunday 08th March
Week 2 will see more of a neutral phase where neither high nor low pressure dominates. Temperatures overall will remain slightly above average, and it should be drier too in the west and northwest. Areas in the south-east are likely to see higher than average rainfall, but conditions overall staying quite mild.
Week 3 – Monday 09th March to Sunday 15th March
Low pressure makes more of an impact then for week 3, with slightly more rainfall expected than normal, while temperatures will fall back to seasonal norms too.
Week 4 – Monday 16th March to Sunday 22nd March
While confidence is low this far our low pressure looks set to remain more of an influence, giving rise to more unsettled conditions. Temperatures are likely to trend around or slightly above average.
Seasonal Outlook for March, April and May (MAM)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the MAM period is for above average temperatures. There is potential for wetter than average conditions through the three months, particularly in March.
Mean temperatures during MAM are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average generally. The potential for warmer than average temperatures increases through the period.
The rainfall forecast is less certain but there is potential for wetter than average conditions through MAM. There is a signal for wetter than normal conditions in March with potential then for both wetter and drier than normal conditions through April and May.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to be above average during MAM, trending 0.2 to 1.0°C degrees higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to normal during May.