The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Further information can be found here Monthly and seasonal forecast explained.
Images: Shutterstock/gabriel12. Met Éireann HQ during Storm Emma 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 01 JULY 2025
Week 1 (Monday 07 July to Sunday 13 July)
Week 1 is showing a slight signal for high pressure building which indicates more settled weather. Temperatures are indicating to be above average for this time of year. Precipitation is likely to be below average especially in parts of the southwest and west of Ireland.
Week 2 (Monday 14 July to Sunday 20 July)
Confidence is lower in week 2 but there is still a signal for high pressure over most of Ireland with the exception of the far southwest which is showing no specific marker for either low or high pressure. Temperatures are expected to remain above average with precipitation amounts below average.
Week 3 (Monday 21 July to Sunday 27 July)
Confidence continues to decrease for week 3 but the signal for high pressure remains. There is a slight indication for higher than average temperatures coinciding with lower than average precipitation amounts as we continue to be influenced by high pressure.
Week 4 (Monday 28 July to Sunday 03 August)
Confidence in the forecast for week 4 is low. A signal for high pressure dominating persists. Temperatures continue to signal slightly above average with lower than average precipitation for this time of year.
Seasonal Outlook for July August September (JAS)
The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the JAS period is for above average temperatures with average to below average rainfall overall.
Mean temperatures during JAS are very likely to be above average. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.5 and 2.0°C above average generally with the highest mean temperatures, compared to average, signalled during July and August.
The rainfall forecast is less certain, with the potential for both wetter and drier periods through JAS, however, there is a signal for slightly drier than average conditions overall.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic to the west and south of Ireland are expected to be above average during JAS, trending 0.5 to 2.0°C higher than normal generally. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be highest in comparison to normal off the south coast.